Asymmetric returns and power have always been building the core tech rails for any innovation/invention.
I visualize this cycle as going ‘from scammers to suits’.
I will not spend time researching mind-blowing examples but explaining the theory. It should be obvious to those who have studied or witnessed a wave with shiddat. Some day, I will revise this and sprinkle it with examples, and name the participants to add color.
Every tech starts on the fringes.
Few adopt it for fun.
More come in for the cause.
The decision of whether the tech has more impact than cost is decided at this level.
Many technologies die at this stage.
Those that do have more impact than cost start creating value for those in it for the cause and for fun.
This is seen by speculators. Speculators will consist of short-term thinkers and a small portion of believers.
Short-term thinkers will often fund scammers while believers try and build something cool and useful.
Speculators will provide the budget for lift-off. Some of these speculators are also distribution/media channels to spread the technology.
Early adopters will enter.
Speculators + early adopters help cross the chasm towards mainstream adoption.
Before crossing the chasm, since the technology is so new and there is hardly any clear standards, it is quite difficult to identify the scammers from the believers.
Once mainstream users start trickling in, there is a clear need for consolidation, standards, and a coherent narrative.
This is where the suits shine.
Consulting firms, hedge funds, and everyone else will enter now that there is certainty.
It is time for the degens to get out because they do not like the dilution of ethos and bureaucracy brought on by the suits.
Some of the degens mature to become veterans and stay as the status quo.
This is purely based on my observation. Tell me where are the inconsistencies. I will keep refining this model to arrive at a good framework.