Although no one can time the market, there are certain variables with which we can reasonably predict a bottom zone and a top zone.
Uncategorized (why is this even here?)
How many Bitcoins should you own?
We talk about Bitcoin’s circulating supply and why the price keeps going up.
Bitcoin Market Cycles
Crypto markets are entirely dependent on Bitcoin and that is good news because we can reasonably predict Bitcoin market cycles.
This is the basis of all our trading decisions. Understanding where we are in the market cycle is super important.
This video introduces the Market Cycles. In subsequent videos, we will see how to use this information for trading altcoins.
The Spiritual Era
About 30,000 years ago, one man challenged another to a fight over a petty dispute. Challenger had a herculean body, probably 8 feet in height. The one who was challenged looked meek. The entire village gathered with the expectation to see how this herculean man would kill this meek.
That day, the ‘meek’ did something no one expected. He built a slingshot, never let the challenger come close, and actually ended up killing him.
This is how I imagine a village full of people who saw the power of intellect over the physical body.
The world was never the same. Intellect > Physical strength forever.
Fast forward to the 21st century. The world is being ruled by the smartest.
But we’re a global village watching the smartest fail at creating a stable, sustainable world. Billionaires and smart folks are powerful, but they ‘need’ to feed this machine.
My theory (quickly turning into belief) is that the spiritual will invent a slingshot equivalent that will kill the notion that intellect is to be worshipped.
And we have the internet as a global stage where villagers will see Spirit > Intellect forever.
I’m still exploring this line of thinking. Do DM me if you wish to discuss/explore.
Some derivative thoughts:
The violence of the mind
From the physical era to the intellectual era, we reduced the violence on the physical body significantly. But we invented another kind of violence to dominate and subjugate other human beings. The violence of the mind. Be it by yelling on TV, sucking our attention with apps, taking over our identity, data, and making us numb by feeding us mindless dark stories, and making people run like donkeys for fake Fiat money.
This violence will. be wiped out in the spiritual era.
Mental six-pack
We realized that intellect cannot flourish until we take care of our bodies. Quantified self and the entire fitness movement is late but taking over.
In the spiritual era, we will realize, our spirit cannot flourish without both our bodies and mind being strong. So we will not just have six-pack Chamath’s, but we will have the mental equivalent of that.
Addiction to permanence
We ask too much from life. Little moments, relationships, joys, and material things – we want all of it permanently. So much that we ignore that is beyond our control.
We’re programmed to think that life is an exercise in gathering things, people, and the latest fad – experiences. None of us have the capacity to hoard every good thing that we encounter. With souvenirs, pictures, closed relationships, we have become addicted to permanence when we know life doesn’t operate that way.
This addiction causes problems that we cannot fathom.
It is hard to give up this addiction. But there has to be a start.
Psychological groundedness
New term needed: holistic, foundation, completeness, in balance.
This comes from knowing where you come from, where you are in this world, and that the possible outcomes are agreeable.
How can I help you?
I started with nothing. Literally a laptop and a spare room at my grandfather’s place.
I quickly discovered that immense forward energy is created when we discover a synergy with the mind: ‘how can I help?’ in any situation. It creates in-roads that may not be that focussed but they lead to previously undiscovered paths that surprise people.
Sometimes I gave free advice to my clients, solved some random bug, gave extra thought for their design, etc. This only made them look at me as a solution-provider instead of a salesman. Not that I do this now. I know what path I am on. But even now, I try and make everyone around me’s life a little better.
This costs nothing, and while many people forget, those who do remember end up paying it back or forward. In any case, it is a virtuous cycle for the world.
That is exactly why everyone needs to work towards their cause. That brings about this attitude: How can I help?
I will tell you when you are wrong
You may be my partner/boss/employee, but I will respectfully tell you when you are wrong.
When I do this, my intent will be to further our mutual interests. Ideally, I would expect us to have a discussion and reach some consensus. If not, we will disagree respectfully (assuming both of us present facts / theories to back our stand).
I will not be a yes man. If you want that, find someone else please.
Grab and run opportunities
Watch Silicon Valley. Check out how Peter Gregory gets curious about Burger King and then figures out the scarcity and economics of sesame seeds.
This sounds great but Peter Thiel wouldn’t operate like this.
Most traditionally successful people end up gaining the most on compounding, doing the same thing again and again till they get some kind of competitive advantage.
It makes little sense for them to go out of their way to find “grab and run” kind of deals and pursue them.
There is the exploration phase and then there is doubling down on opportunities. Money is made by doubling down on opportunities that you understand better than others.
Pendulum Theory
This connects to Elements of Human Stack.
Can’t believe I never put this to words until a reference popped up.
Anyway, the Pendulum Theory states that we can never reach equilibrium from one end of the spectrum until we swing wildly to the other end. With every swing, the force is less, and the effects of extreme ends of a spectrum become visible. So we arrive somewhere in the middle, maybe leaning a little to one side or the other. Ideal is a middle but most of us choose our stance on the spectrum to complement our external environment.
On a personal, organizational or societal level, we would do great to acknowledge this.
Personal: If I am an overweight couch potato, I cannot do a nice morning routine that Atomic Habits tell me to. I will have a much easier time going to the other extreme and then coming back to the couch for a little bit. This helps my body and mind experience the effects of each lifestyle and then consciously choose. Most people rely on a mythical concept called discipline to get in the perfect schedule and end up giving up. Not how humans work.
On every level, I think we are always moving from one side of the spectrum to another. Whether it is about our beliefs, values, or behavior. We are constantly changing – some slowly, some fast. Some do it subconsciously, some intentionally.
We know both ends of any spectrum are bad. Moderation or Madhyast in Eastern cultures is the way.
I think the more conscious we are of the swinging, the faster we can bring it to an equilibrium. The ‘grass is greener’ problem is also solved by being conscious of which part of the spectrum you want to be on, and why.
The more stable we are, the better we can find communities that align with us: Alignment of human stack.