57. Always Seek Disconfirmatory Evidence

Confirmation bias highlights evidence that supports an existing belief, while confidence bias exaggerates the ability to execute it. These shortcuts make action possible but are especially dangerous for founders, whose excitement and identity are attached to the idea. Confidence can power years of work on a problem that exists only in the founder’s map.

Make opposition a required step: write failure modes, opportunity costs, contrary facts, and a serious case against the decision. Ask what evidence would change your mind and seek it before committing. Preserve the energy to act while separating that energy from the accuracy of the underlying claim.

Original sketch and model by Paras Chopra. Read the source chapter.