the chart is the pitch

This is the one I say most. By a lot.

I don’t need to know your product. Don’t explain the problem, don’t explain the TAM, I already know. Show me if the hockey stick is forming. If it is, I’ll dig into everything. If it isn’t, the thesis can be perfect, the gap in the market can be real, and it won’t matter.

VCs changed their minds in the last six months. The product doesn’t matter to them anymore because anyone can build it. What they’re buying is proof that you can drive traction. The chart is that proof. 41k to 120k is a rate. People get excited about rate. The absolute number is nothing. 120k ARR over nine months is boring. 120k ARR where six months were zero and then it went 30k, 120k is a j-curve and now you have their attention.

They’re looking for the inflection point. Where were you flat, and where did it bend. If you’re right after the bend, they have to decide today, because in three months the number has another zero and so does the valuation. If you can’t show the bend, they’ll say “let’s see what you do in two months” and they’ll be right to.

What counts as a chart: money in versus money out. Users who came back. Total value locked (TVL) that grew from 10 dollars with a curve you control. A Dune dashboard. Google Analytics connected. These can’t be faked, which is exactly why I ask for them before anything else. A deck is a snapshot. A chart is a trajectory.

What doesn’t count: projections. Don’t put them in the data room. They’ll always be wrong, and saying you’re certain about them is a red flag. Put only what you’re certain of. The fewer attack vectors, the better.

And yes, you can and should pump the chart. If adding gross merchandise value (GMV) doubles it, add GMV. Everyone’s doing this. It’s poker, not chess. Your cards aren’t all on the table and the graph is what everyone’s raising on.

the call where i said it best

A crypto data company with a great pitch asked for a demo day slot. I said the pitch is awesome and the demand is obvious, which is the problem. Hundreds of teams are doing this. Winner takes all, and the only question is who. Send me a Dune dashboard today. If the curve is there, you’re in. He sent it. That’s the whole evaluation.

do this this week

Make one chart. The x-axis is weeks; the y-axis is the number that matters most. If you don’t know which number, it’s the one that goes up when people pay you.

the line to remember

don’t explain to me your problem and your tam and everything. just show me if the hockey stick curve is being formed.